Comments on: How long does it take to launch an Amazon EC2 instance? http://www.philchen.com/2009/04/21/how-long-does-it-take-to-launch-an-amazon-ec2-instance Phil Chen Thu, 09 Sep 2010 07:53:14 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Phil Chen http://www.philchen.com/2009/04/21/how-long-does-it-take-to-launch-an-amazon-ec2-instance/comment-page-1#comment-2095 Phil Chen Wed, 22 Apr 2009 21:24:13 +0000 http://www.philchen.com/?p=368#comment-2095 Hi Dave, Thanks for the info, I will definitely check out the paper, and see if Holt-Winters Forecasting model suits our needs! I am sure I will have some questions for you after reading up on it. Phil Hi Dave,

Thanks for the info, I will definitely check out the paper, and see if Holt-Winters Forecasting model suits our needs! I am sure I will have some questions for you after reading up on it.

Phil

]]> By: Dave Plonka http://www.philchen.com/2009/04/21/how-long-does-it-take-to-launch-an-amazon-ec2-instance/comment-page-1#comment-2094 Dave Plonka Wed, 22 Apr 2009 15:07:49 +0000 http://www.philchen.com/?p=368#comment-2094 Hi Phil, To the point of [automatically] determining usage patterns and unexpectedly high traffic periods: perhaps you could use Holt-Winters Forecasting, as implemented in RRDTool, to determine when would be a good time to bring up the additional resources. This could help in two ways: (1) to determine typical load based on past observations (accommodating diurnal variation) and (2) when the load is aberrant in that it is beginning to exceed the forecast significantly, it could report this as prediction failure and provide an early indication to bring up those additional resources in anomalous load situations, such as flash crouds. This can be made to work well on the scale of tens of minutes in the default RRDTool implementation. Jake Brutlag's original paper is here: http://www.usenix.org/events/lisa00/brutlag.html Dave Hi Phil,

To the point of [automatically] determining usage patterns and unexpectedly high traffic periods:
perhaps you could use Holt-Winters Forecasting, as implemented in RRDTool, to determine when would be a good time to bring up the additional resources. This could help in two ways: (1) to determine typical load based on past observations (accommodating diurnal variation) and (2) when the load is aberrant in that it is beginning to exceed the forecast significantly, it could report this as prediction failure and provide an early indication to bring up those additional resources in anomalous load situations, such as flash crouds. This can be made to work well on the scale of tens of minutes in the default RRDTool implementation.
Jake Brutlag’s original paper is here: http://www.usenix.org/events/lisa00/brutlag.html

Dave

]]>